Traders of short-term interest-rate futures on Friday now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates just one time this year, backing away from earlier bets on two rate cuts starting in June, after government data showed the labor market remains strong and a closely-watched survey showed a jump in consumers' inflation expectations.

The January jobs report revealed a drop in the unemployment rate to 4%, accompanied by payroll gains of 143,000. A Fed interest rate cut in March is now very unlikely.

The Trump administration is more focused on keeping Treasury yields low rather than on what the Fed does, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Bessent indicated that Trump will not be hectoring the Fed to cut,

Tariffs on U.S. goods and services may complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision making as market expectations for 2025 interest rate cuts decline.