In such a scenario, where Pakistan faces an existential threat, or believes that its territory is about to be overrun, it may decide to “go nuclear”—even at the risk of self-destruction. The latest test of this pattern arose in the aftermath of a terrorist attack in Indian-Administered Kashmir on April 22.

Pakistan’s army spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif, said an Indian drone attacked a military target near Lahore overnight, wounding four soldiers, while the country’s air defense system intercepted and shot down 12 Indian drones that entered Pakistani airspace at various locations.

India’s missile and bomb strikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir have spiked tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with Pakistan’s leader calling the attacks an act